The future
There is a current order book of 413 ships totalling 14.1 million dwt. This extends into 2018, but can be misleading. Due to the length of time needed to build a large ship, up to three years, they are ordered much longer in advance in comparison to smaller ships that can be built in a year or less. Extending the data in Tables 1 and 2 gives the picture shown in Table 3.
As mentioned, this is misleading not only because of the construction time needed, but also due to what is known as ‘slippage’. This accounts for delays in construction that will ‘slip’ as ships into the following year and are almost impossible to estimate. I would estimate that between 70 and 80 ships will ‘slip’ from 2015 to 2016 but I am not willing to estimate future years. Ships are still being ordered for 2016 delivery and I am sure some will be delayed.
The Jan 1, 2007 change in IMO regulations has had a huge effect on the chemical tanker business. While long established owners and operators continued as before, there was a big change in others who thought they could see opportunities in the new regulations. The main effect is seen on the larger ships, although the smaller sizes were also affected. Figures 3 and 4 show how the different sizes were affected.
What is clear is that, while the development over the years has been fairly consistent in terms of the number of ships, the overall tonnage of the fleet has been dramatically affected by the ships of 30,000 dwt and above. A review of the fleet in five years’ time will be most enlightening.
Charles Barton
Maritime Consultant
