The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher.
Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than 10% of the population – are poorly fed or underfed. Their condition ranges from various stages of malnutrition to the verge of starvation. The greatest portion of the malnourished population is in the less developed areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, but a small percentage resides in developed countries around the world, including the US.
The percentage of underfed may well be the lowest in recorded history, and yet it is still a major problem in this time of plentiful and relatively cheap world food supplies. According to the large volume of research on word hunger conducted by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Food Programme and a variety of NGOs and academic groups, a number of factors have led to so many being considered malnourished.
Generally, the factors fall into two broad categories: distribution problems, and the affordability of food for the poorest segments of the world’s population.
In fact, there is a long litany of problems standing in the way of food security in Africa and Southeast Asia. One concerns ‘subsistence farmers’ who barely produce enough food on tiny plots to feed themselves, much less market to others. Thanks largely to outside development money provided by charitable groups, this has begun to change in some areas as farmers begin to consolidate their production and marketing. However, the lack of appropriate laws and specific property rights, and a legal system to enforce them, still stand in the way of development of a farm economy in some countries. Poor or non-existent infrastructure is also a major problem.
Also standing in the way are governance problems that include taxing agricultural production to boost government revenues, polices that favour urban populations, blocking technology such as genetically modified (GM) seeds, constant civil strife and corruption (among other issues).
Problems created by government mismanagement and corruption add to food supply and distribution issues in certain developing regions. These problems do not get enough attention in our view. No doubt, the FAO, NGOs and others believe they must take a tiptoe approach to corruption since they must deal with and solicit support from governments and officials involved.
An increasingly popular topic of discussion concerns the ability of the world to feed itself in 2050 when the population is expected to be at least 9 billion. In fact, an Internet search reveals a great deal of interest in the subject. After reaching 30, we stopped counting the discussion papers and articles on the topic. They came from a wide variety of sources, including some with hardly any association with food and agriculture.
Not only will the world’s population grow in the next 30 years, analysts expect other important demographic changes. Population among current developed countries is expected to remain about unchanged at about 1.2 billion as growth in the US offsets declines in Europe and Japan. The real increase will occur in developing countries with about 41% of the growth in Asia and 47% in Africa. Currently, an estimated 55% live in urban areas, but analysts expect this will rise to 70% by 2050.
The general consensus is that world food production must increase by at least 60% to accommodate demand in 2050. Developing countries will see higher growth in their economies and in personal income that will lead to dietary changes. Consumption of meat and dairy products will rise as it already has in China, India and other expanding Asian economies. This suggests that more grain will be needed for animal feed. It also suggests growing demand for meat will require intensive feeding systems and blunt the current push for range-fed livestock and poultry.
Thoughts on productivity
How can the world’s food production be increased to feed the 2050 population in an ecologically sustainable way? The ideas being advanced vary widely.
Some who advocate for organic agricultural production contend that a greater reliance on that sector will be necessary. Others argue that higher productivity from expanded GM crops, including fruit and vegetables, plus the advance of genetic science will boost yields enough to accomplish what is needed. Some would eliminate the use of grains and oilseeds to produce substitutes for fossil fuel. Others argue that more arable land can be brought into production without additional destruction of the Amazon rain forests, Asian jungles or other sensitive areas.
Many of the proposals focus on increased productivity, especially among the small farms prevalent in much of Africa; decreased food waste; diet changes; encouraging smaller families, particularly in Africa; and greater public/private investment in research. Generally ignored are the many political problems that will be involved. Those who write ‘thought’ papers on the subject of feeding the world in 2050 seem to assume that governments will ‘do the right thing’ whenever they are called upon to do so.
We are left with two thoughts. The first is that none of the papers and articles on feeding the world have acknowledged that farmers, no matter where they are located or what crops they produce, expect to make a profit. They may love what they do, but they are unlikely to keep doing it if their revenues never exceed their costs. Businesses involved in transporting and/or converting farm crops into feed or food also expect to earn a profit. It is the expectation of profit that keeps the marketing chain in motion, and that expectation will be a necessary part of an increasing food supply.
Our second thought is that throughout human history, the growing demand for food has driven the innovations, technology and research needed to boost productivity to meet that demand. As they say, need (demand) is the mother of invention, and the history of food production is perhaps the best example of this. What reason is there to believe that food supply productivity will fail to keep pace with demand in the future?
Bob Kohlmeyer
Source: Ag Perspective, July 19, 2019
